△奥斯卡·王尔德，爱尔兰剧作家
Rolling forecasts are a planning method that refers to a process of forecasting trends that may impact your business 4-8 quarters in the future. With rolling forecasts, the number of periods in the forecast remains constant and visibility of the business does not stop at year-end. The idea is to do a new forecast every three months and add another three months to the end of your forecasting cycle on a rolling basis.
滚动预测是一种对可能在未来4-8个季度中影响你的业务的趋势进行预测的过程和计划方法。使用滚动预测的时候，预测的周期数量会保持不变，因此业务的可见度不会在年底截止。每三个月做一次新的预测，然后在预测周期的最后再增加三个月。
A rolling forecast is a better management approach since it gives management a view into the future.
滚动预测是一种更好的管理方法，因为它可以 让管理人员看到未来。
According to APQC, the use of rolling forecasting (RF) can save a median of 25 days on an organization’s annual budgeting cycle. A rolling forecast expands planning horizons and challenges the traditional static budget. More and more companies are introducing RF into their processes, many of them use the process parallel to the traditional budgeting process.
根据APQC的统计， 使用滚动预测(RF)可以使一个组织的年度预算周期节省25天。滚动预测扩展了规划视野，并挑战了传统的静态预算。越来越多的公司将RF引入到他们的流程中，其中许多公司同时使用次流程与传统的预算流程。
The concept of a Rolling Forecast is a hot topic in FP&A at the moment. Many companies attempt to implement it, but not all of them are successful. Statistics suggests that one in five of the organisations that implemented rolling forecasts recently have since abandoned them because they proved to be more complex than initially expected. Additionally, they didn’t find enough value in this tool to continue using it.
滚动预测的概念是当代财务计划与分析（FP&A）课题的一个热门话题。许多公司在尝试实现它，但并非所有公司都成功。统计数据显示，最近（译者注：2016年）实施滚动预测的五分之一企业最终放弃了这种预算方式，因为它比最初预想得要复杂。此外，这个工具也没有提供足够的价值让大家继续使用它。
However, a rolling forecast can be a powerful tool for FP&A if used correctly.
然而，如果使用正确，滚动预测可以 成为财务计划与分析的强大工具。
Over the course of my career, I have implemented a number of Rolling Forecasts: there were both success stories and lessons to learn. These seven success factors were discussed at length at 7 AFP FP&A Clubs that I ran in Europe and the Middle East. They were also presented to a group of around 400 FP&A professionals at the 2013 AFP Annual Conference in Las Vegas. The concept was also deliberated with London FP&A Board members, many CFOs and with a number of FP&A Directors of global corporations during my 2 years of FP&A travels.
在我个人的职业生涯中曾操刀过一些滚动预测项目：既有成功案例，也有教训需要学习。在欧洲和中东AFP FP&A俱乐部中我详细套路过7个我复盘出的滚动预算成功要素。在拉斯维加斯举行的2013年法新社年会上，这些方法被介绍给了大约400名FP&A专业人员。在我两年的FP&A巡回演讲期间，伦敦FP&A董事会成员，多位首席财务官和一些全球公司的FP&A董事也讨论了这个概念。
Factor 1 / 要素一
Culture: The starting point for the successful rolling forecast is an organisation’s business culture. Successful implementation requires support from top management and acceptance by key participants. All parties must understand that a rolling forecast is not a measurement, but is a management tool. It should not follow accounting structures. 文化： 成功的滚动预测起源于一家公司的企业文化。在最高管理层的支持和关键参与者的接受下，滚动预测才会取得成功。所有各方都必须理解，滚动预测不是一种计量方法，而是一种管理工具。它不应该循规蹈矩地接受会计原则。Factor 2 / 要素二
People: The next crucial factor for a successful rolling forecast is people. Talent in FP&A, in particular, is important for individuals working with a rolling forecast. They should be good communicators with analytical skills who can see the ‘big picture’ and possess the ability to build models. 人群： 成功的滚动预测的下一个关键因素是人。FP&A领域的人才是做滚动预测的绝佳人选。他们应该是具有分析技能的良好沟通者，能够看到“大图景”，并拥有构建模型的能力。Factor 3 / 要素三
Models and systems: Four in five organisations continue to use Excel for FP&A. Attempting to produce a rolling forecast for a multimillion or multibillion dollar company in Excel is almost impossible. 模型和系统 ：五分之四的组织还在使用Excel进行做财务规划与分析。用试图Excel对一家市值数百或数十亿美元的公司进行滚动预测几乎是不可能的事情。Models and systems are essential and should be driver-based, to make it easier to plan different scenarios and forecast quickly. Systems should be flexible and tailored to FP&A. Many companies evidently still attempt to do this in Excel, but Excel is prone to mistakes and can be one of the reasons why a rolling forecast is unsuccessful.
模型和系统是 必备的，而且应该基于驱动，以便更容易去规划不同业务场景和实现快速预测。系统应该尽可能 灵活并量身定制。显然，许多公司仍然试图用Excel做这些工作，但Excel很容易出错，这可能是滚动预测不成功的原因之一。
Factor 4 / 要素四
Process: Processes should be quick, flexible and allow for collaboration while minimising non-value adding activities. This takes time, effort and education; a company I was previously with could not improve its process because the operational calendar was created three years earlier. Standardisation and modern systems can help improve processes; it is up to FP&A to make sure these are implemented. 流程： 流程应该快速、灵活，并支持多部门协作，同时最大限度地减少非增值活动。这需要时间、精力和培训；我以前所在的一家公司无法改进其流程，因为运营日程表是在三年前创建的。作为FP&A要确保标准化和现代系统能帮助改进流程，Factor 5 / 要素五
Design: It is important to understand the level of detail needed in a rolling forecast. It should be timely, and should allow for action. The forecast should contain the minimum amount of data to understand what drives the future. Only forecasts that are based on drivers and assumptions are actionable. We should not use conventional accounting data structures because they do not explain why and, therefore, are not actionable. 设计： 了解滚动预测中所需的 细节颗粒度 很重要。要能即时且充分地做出反应。预测中应该只用少量的数据来解释究竟是什么因素驱动了未来业绩。只有基于驱动因素和假设的预测才是可操作的。我们不应该再使用传统的会计数据结构，因为它们不能解释“ 为什么 如此”，因此我们也无法任何采取行动。Factor 6 / 要素六
Alignment: Typically, companies have three planning processes: Strategic planning, where everything begins; Business planning, where most FP&A people are working; and Operation planning, which provides input to the business plan. Alignment and communication between these different planning processes are vital for a successful rolling forecast. 统一口径： 通常，公司有 三个规划过程 ：战略规划是一切起始；业务规划是大多数FP&A人员工作的领域；还有运营计划，是业务规划的组成部分。这些一环套一环的规划过程要保持口径和目标上的一致性，对于成功的滚动预测至关重要。Factor 7 / 要素七
Participation: The forecasting process involves so many different people; both financial and non-financial. It is up to FP&A practitioners to be business partners and teach non-financial people what drivers and systems to use. There is a gap between strategy and execution at many organisations; involving many departments in the planning process can help to overcome this problem. However, while participation is important, FP&A professionals must also ensure that the process does not become too crowded. 参与： 预测过程涉及很多不同的人；财务和非财务。FP&A从业人员得以财务BP的身份让非财的同事了解驱动因素和怎么使用系统。许多企业的战略层和执行层之间存在障碍，但多部门参与规划可以帮助克服这个问题。然而，虽然多部门参与很重要，但也必须 确保这个环节不要太拥挤。Drawbacks and Challenges / 不足与挑战
Naturally there are drawbacks to using a rolling forecast. The preparation process can be costly and time-consuming if they are not automated since a forecast is reviewed and updated several times per year and is too complex for accountants without sufficient training. Constant forecasting throughout the year can also lead to an increase in managers’ workload. Coordination of profit centres can decrease due to the lack of one common budget. Lastly, the performance evaluation will be more difficult to carry out.
使用滚动预测也有缺点。如果执行过程不够自动化，它很可能会既昂贵又耗时，因为预测通常每年会被审查和更新几次，而且对于道行不够的会计师来说太复杂了。全年的持续预测也会导致业务经理的工作量陡增。由于缺乏共同预算，利润中心的支持可能会减少。最后，绩效评估将更难以执行。
Rolling Forecasting vs. Budgeting / 滚动预测 vs 预算
Many studies present rolling forecasts as the main alternative to budgets. Beyond budgeting propagators view budgets as static, cumbersome and time-consuming; creating little value for an organisation. Alternatively, rolling forecasts and a combination of other performance management tools are said to improve the performance management process.
许多研究将滚动预测作为预算的主要替代方案。除了预算，这些观点的传播者认为预算是静态的，繁琐又耗时，只为企业创造些许价值。或者， 滚动预测和其他绩效的管理工具组合起来更有用。
However, even with rolling forecasting, most companies are unlikely to eliminate the budget altogether. Budgets are often required by external agencies and financial institutions. They may also be required for target setting and performance bonuses. One approach is just to nominate one rolling forecast, which covers the required periods, to be called the budget.
然而，即使有滚动预测，大多数公司也不太可能完全取消预算机制。外部机构和金融机构经常需要编制预算。它们还可能需要获得目标设置和性能奖金。一种方法就是选取一个滚动预测，在覆盖考核期内将之当做是预算。
For example, the rolling 18-month forecast produced in November will include the whole of the following year, and the relevant periods could be copied to create the budget for the following year. This may be subject to additional review and approval steps but would not require the investment in time that was previously dedicated to the standalone budget process.
例如，在11月份产生的18个月滚动预测将涵盖下一年全年，相关的会计期间就可以用来做下一年的预算。这可能需要进行额外的审查和批准步骤，但不需要再专门又做一遍预算和投资了。
Conclusions / 结论
Planning process based on Rolling Forecast is quick, dynamic and forward-looking. This tool provides better results over the traditional forecasting process. Implemented correctly, Rolling Forecast expands planning horizons and quickly informs decision makers about the future risks and profitable outcomes.
基于滚动预测的规划过程是 快速、动态和富有前瞻性的。该工具提供了比传统的预测过程更好的结果。正确实施后，滚动预测扩展了规划范围，并迅速告知决策者未来的风险和盈利结果。
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