Welcome to CBRE’s 2023 China Real Estate Market Outlook.
The report explains how CBRE expects the recovery in China’s economy and commercial real estate market to pan out in 2023.
Economy
China’s economy will normalise in 2023, with CBRE forecasting GDP growth of around 5% y-o-y. Counter-cyclical policies and structural transformation are set to ensure stable growth.
ESG
The introduction of ESG objectives and tracking of ESG performance is expected to accelerate further in 2023. Occupiers and investors will increasingly adopt ESG metrics and demand for green buildings is set to accelerate.
Office
CBRE expects nationwide net absorption to reach 6.2 million sq. m. in 2023, well above the five-year average of 5.3 million sq. m. Tech and finance will remain the key drivers of office demand.
Retail
Tax reductions and growth of subsidiaries will support the ongoing recovery of China’s consumption market. Gen Z-related trades and new energy vehicle retailers will see rapid growth. A more synergistic relationship between retailers and landlords will emerge.
Logistics
With demand set to remain strong in 2023, net absorption is expected to exceed 6 million sq. m. for the second consecutive year, driven by the rise of new business models such as e-commerce, 3PL expansion and the launch of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). More cities will shift to balanced or landlord-favoured markets.
Investment
Real estate investment volume is forecasted to reach RMB 300 billion in 2023 as buyers look to purchase more and asset availability improves. CBRE advises investors to target real estate benefiting from the new economy and focus on cyclical opportunities in the office and retail sectors.
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