The Tragedy of Climate Change
By Jennifer Wallace
【1】Tragedies on the stage take place over a limited period of time. The protagonist is presented with a dilemma. He makes a choice. Terrible consequences rapidly ensue. As soon as Macbeth kills King Duncan, he is damned – his drunken porter turns his castle into hell, and unnatural signs of turmoil, such as horses eating each other, follow that same night. So swift is the action in the Scottish play that Macbeth and his wife want to speed up time, doing the deed “quickly”, feeling the “future in the instant” or willing to “jump the life to come”. The play hurtles towards its conclusion as the prophecies of the three witches come to pass, with devastating neatness.
【2】But the tragedy of environmental disaster unfolds along a much more extended timescale. The bleaching of the coral reefs, the shrinking of the Arctic polar ice, the extreme droughts and floods taking place worldwide, are symptoms and portents of decisions already taken whose full consequences have not yet been felt.
【3】There is a time lag between carbon emissions and temperature rises: the one-degree increase in the global average temperature is a result of carbon emissions released 40 years ago, while the levels of carbon in the atmosphere right now – about 412 parts per million (ppm) and rising – are enough to cause two degrees of warming by the middle of the century.
【4】This trajectory is also complicated by the so-called climate-change feedback loop. Once the Earth is warmed by more than 2˚C, the capacity of plants to absorb carbon dioxide through photosynthesis will be affected and they will start to puff the gas out instead of taking it in (the carbon feedback loop), causing temperatures to rise further.
【5】The tragic narrative of climate change is much lengthier than tragic plots in the theatre, and stretches the connections between cause and consequence, transgression and punishment. It resembles Prometheus, nailed to his rock in Aeschylus’s play, knowing that centuries in the future his defiance will ensure the toppling of his enemy, Zeus. He knows the secret cause of Zeus’s overthrow from prophetic signs he can detect in the here and now, but is reluctant to divulge it. So the immovable fate of Zeus and Prometheus turns out to be based upon Prometheus’s will, and upon the brinkmanship between the two.
【6】Climate change is not our problem, we tell ourselves. It is for future generations to worry about. But if we view climate change as a tragic narrative that can be read and interpreted in the same way as an Aeschylean or Shakespearean play, then we might think about time, fate and individual responsibility differently.
【7】Tragic plots revolve around the moment when the hero makes the wrong choice. Macbeth kills the king; Oedipus murders his father; Prometheus steals fire from the gods. Fate plays a part in determining these decisions but each man also has free will and voluntarily enters into his chosen course of action. In Aeschylus’s Oresteia, Agamemnon willingly puts his head into the “yoke of necessity”, uniting free will and destiny. Prometheus revels in his free will and capacity for defiance. These tragic narratives forge the connections between the individual and the world, between the small choices we each make and the huge, inevitable consequences they unleash.
【8】According to the writer and former soldier Roy Scranton, we have to treat existence as a tragedy to which we are stoically resigned. “We can learn to see each day as the death of what came before, freeing ourselves to deal with whatever problems the present offers without attachment or fear,” he writes.
【9】Nevertheless, there exists an alternative way to think about climate crisis. Aeschylus does not shy away from confronting the weakening power of human agency in the face of the vast inhuman forces of time, place and destiny. But still he leaves room in his dramatic vision of the world for contingency, for resistance and responsibility. Progress is dependent upon each character’s knowledge and acknowledgement of the vagaries of self-deception or engagement.
【10】We are not “free” to detach ourselves, but rather remain vitally attached, through tragic witness, to those “crawling glaciers”, to those signs of the past, present and future and to our own capacity for action.
参考译文
气候变化的悲剧
文/珍妮弗·华莱士 译/王广州
舞台上的悲剧发展总是太快：主人公面对两难困境，做出抉择，继而产生可怕的后果。麦克白刚刚杀了国王邓肯，诅咒就应验了——醉酒的守门人把他家的城堡称作地狱，当晚还出现一些怪异的骚乱现象，比如骏马相食之类的。这出苏格兰大戏的情节发展得实在太快了，麦克白夫妇从速从急，刺杀君王要“快”，还感觉到“未来瞬息即至”，甚或是情愿“不顾来世”。三位女巫的预言一一成真，这出戏疾急收了尾，干净利落。
但是，环境灾难发展成悲剧，要经过相当漫长的时间。珊瑚礁白化，北极冰盖消融，世界范围内发生极端旱涝灾害，这就是人类决断失误的迹象和征兆，其全部后果尚且感受不到。
碳排放与气温上升之间存在时间间隔：全球平均气温上升1℃是40年前碳排放的结果；现今空气中的二氧化碳浓度是百万分之412，而且还在不断攀升，这足可以在本世纪中期造成全球平均气温上升2℃。
这一变化轨迹也会因所谓气候变化反馈回路而更加复杂。一旦地球变暖超过2℃，植物通过光合作用吸收二氧化碳的能力就会受到影响，不再吸入、反倒呼出这种气体（碳反馈回路），致使气温进一步升高。
与剧场里的悲剧情节相比，气候变化的悲剧发展就拖沓多了，前因与后果、罪孽与惩处等发展脉络都拉长了。就像普罗米修斯，在埃斯库罗斯的戏剧中直接被钉到悬崖上，但他相信数百年以后自己的对抗必将颠覆对头——宙斯。宙斯如何被推翻还是个谜，但从当下四处可察的迹象来看，他已然预知，只是不愿透露。所以，宙斯和普罗米修斯无从改变的命运，其实是起因于普罗米修斯的意志与二位神明之间的底线试探。
我们总说，我们不必顾虑气候变化，那是后人要担忧的问题。但如果把气候变化视为悲剧，以等同于埃斯库罗斯或莎士比亚戏剧的方式解读，那么，我们看待时间、命运和个人责任的方式可能会有所不同。
悲剧情节总是围绕英雄做出错误抉择的那一刻展开：比如麦克白刺杀国王，俄狄浦斯弑父，普罗米修斯盗取天火。命运确定了数种选项，而人也有自由意志，甘心进入所选的剧情之中。在埃斯库罗斯的“俄瑞斯忒斯”三部曲中，阿伽门农心甘情愿地套上“必然性的辕轭”，是自由意志的体现，也是命运使然。普罗米修斯既快意于自己的自由意志，也自喜于反抗神王的能力。这类悲剧的展开铸就了个人与世界的联系，个人的选择何其渺小，而所遭受的结局不可抗拒，又何其惨重！
作家罗伊·斯克兰顿是位退伍军人。按照他的说法，我们只能把生存当作一出悲剧，屈身其中，还要安之若素。他还写道：“可以试着把每一天看作过往的终结，从而解脱出来，直面当前的问题，不要留恋，也不要恐惧。”
不过，还有另外一种方式来思考气候危机问题。面对时间、地点和命运等强势无伦的力量时，埃斯库罗斯没有回避人力的衰微。但在他戏剧化的世界中，还为偶然、反抗和责任留有空间。面对命运，各个角色或是自我欺骗，或是挺身应战，而事态的发展就取决于他们对这类异常行为的理解和认识。
我们不能有推脱自我的“自由”，还必须以见证悲剧的方式把自我与“移动的冰川”，与过去、现在和将来的种种迹象，与我们的行动能力紧密联系起来。
优秀译文
气候变化的悲剧
文/詹妮弗·华莱士 译/商裴裴
舞台上，悲剧持续的时间有限。主人公遭遇两难境地，继而做出抉择，随即惨剧接踵而来。麦克白在杀死邓肯国王的那一刻，就遭到了诅咒——在烂醉的门房口中，麦克白的城堡俨然人间地狱。当晚异象频现，比如，马匹之间同类相食，一场混乱呼之欲出。这部苏格兰剧情节发展迅速，麦克白夫妇巴不得时间过得快点，他们“加紧”行动，感觉“未来近在咫尺”，甘愿“搭上来世”。伴随着三个巫师的预言一一实现，结局倏然而至，这一安排干净利落，令人叹为观止。
但是，环境灾难引发的悲剧要漫长得多。珊瑚礁白化，北极冰块消融变小，全球范围内极度的干旱与洪水肆虐，凡此种种，都拜前人决定所赐，但这不是全部，它们还预示着